Monthly Archives: October 2008

Today in the Polls

Well it’s about time!  Today was John McCain’s day in the polls.  Today RCP National average shows Barack with a 6 point lead.  This is extremely close when it comes to polling numbers.  However, the latest Rasmussen poll says it’s even closer, with a mere 3 point Obama lead.  The RCP Average is inflated though, due to the latest Pew Research poll showing Obama with a 15 point lead.  I think things are looking up for us conservatives. TCJ Average- 4 points Obama

State Polls

Colorado- RCP Average showing a 7.4 lead for Obama.  However, the latest Rasmussen polls shows only a 4 point lead Obama.  This is down from yesterday’s number of 5 points lead for Obama.  I don’t really know what to expect on this one.  It’s truly a toss-up.  TCJ Average- 4.5 Obama

Florida-  Not really liking today’s update, although it isn’t terrible.  A 3.5 point lead for Obama according to the RCP Average.  I would still like to point out that the usually left-tilting Zogby poll has the race tied. TCJ Average- 2.5 points Obama

Missouri-  This is a bright spot.  RCP Average has a tiny 0.2 point lead for Obama, pretty much a tie.  The latest poll actually has McCain up by 2.  And get this, that’s a TIME MAGAZINE poll.  This leads me to believe McCain is up by more than just 2. TCJ Average- 2 points McCain

Nevada- This is a weird one.  I find it very hard to believe that in the course of one day McCain dropped 4 points in the RCP average.  This one is weird, so I really can’t say much about it.

New Hampshire- Also really weird.  Some unknown poll that I have certainly never heard of has Obama up by 24 points.  That is ridiculous.  Anyway, the latest Rasmussen has a 4 point race in Obama’s favor, which is extremely close.

New Mexico- We’ve finally got some new data, but I don’t really like what it says.  Good news is, the RCP Average is showing Obama’s lead down to 7 points.  The bad news is the latest Rasmussen shows Obama up 10 points.  Not much to work with here so no TCJ Average.

North Carolina-  Obama’s lead has dropped down to 1.3 points.  The latest Rasmussen poll actually has McCain up by 1.  I think things are finally turning around in North Carolina.  TCJ Average- 1 point McCain

Ohio- RCP Average at 5.8 points Obama.  I don’t think he’s got that much of a lead and I do think is still going to take this state.  The latest polls have it about 4 points Obama, that includes the latest Rasmussen.  TCJ Average- 3 points Obama

Pennsylvania- RCP Average showing an 11 point lead for Obama.  I think it’s actually much closer here.  This state is where my confidence comes from.  Clearly, the internal polls for both campaigns are showing it’s a close race.  If not, why are they both investing so much time and money into it?  This leads me to believe that all the states are closer than the public polls are letting on.  But anyway, the latest Rasmussen shows a 7 point lead for Obama.  TCJ Average- 8 points Obama

Virginia- RCP Average down to 7.6 points in favor of Obama.  The latest Rasmussen shows a 4 point Obama lead.  I really can’t see this state going democrat in this election.  TCJ Average- 5 points Obama

That’s all in today’s polls!  Thanks for reading!  Like I said, if there any states you want to add to the daily update just let me know.

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Joe the Plumber Out Campaigning with Palin

I guess he’s decided who he is endorsing, although I never really baught into his “I’m still undecided” nonsense.  Joe the Plumber was out campaigning with Sarah Palin when she brought up the issue of taxes.  She introduced as “someone who really gets it when it comes to this issue”, and he emerged on stage with much excitement and cheering.  I think Joe the Plumber is at the base of this last minute momentum change in the polls.  McCain has surged forward, only down 3 points to Obama in the latest Rasmussen poll.  And no matter what the crazy liberal media says and regardless of whether or not he holds an actual plumbers license, the point he is making is huge:  Obama’s tax plan is, simply put, socialist.  I know this is been said for a while, but the majority of voters really don’t know what that means.  A friend of mine the other day definied socialism as: “A form of government where everyone is friendly and communicates well with eachother.” (not even kidding).  So basically, I think Joe the Plumber (with the help of Barack Obama saying the “spread the wealth” line) has brought down to the average American’s level.  I think we will look back on this election and say Joe the Plumber was a defining moment.

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Today in the Polls

Sorry I didn’t update over the weekend, I was out of town.  Here are today’s polling numbers:

Today the RCP average shows that Obama is up by 7.3 points.  However, taking only the most recent data (polls released yesterday and today, it shows Obama is only up about 6 points.  And then from there if you take out polls that are clearly biased or inaccurate, it shows Obama is only up about 4.5 points, this number is our average, and will from now on be known as the TCJ Average.

State Polls:

Colorado- The RCP average is 6.4 Obama (A Colorado newspaper poll has Obama up 12 in the state, causing the average to be larger), but the Rasmussen numbers show it’s closer with a 5-point Obama lead.  Something worth noting is that the Time Magazine poll (usually trends far to the left) has this race as close as 4 points. TCJ Average- 4.5 points Obama.

Florida- RCP average has Obama up 1.9, this lead is most likely because the St. Petersburg Times poll has it 7 points in Obama’s favor.  Something to note is that the latest Zogby poll (which as we’ve said trends left) has this race tied in Flordia.  TCJ Average-1 point McCain

Missouri- Obama’s lead in the state has shrunk to 1 point, the latest poll shows it’s tied (SurveyUSA) and NBC/Mason Dixon and Suffolk show McCain with a 1 point lead.  TCJ Average- 1 point McCain (I think has a much larger lead, but this is just working with the polling data I have.)

Nevada- Now a 3.5 lead for Obama.  TCJ Average- 3 point Obama

New Hampshire- RCP average shows a 7.7 lead for Obama.  However the two most recent polls show a 4 and 5 point lead for Obama.  The MOE on both was 4 points, so this state could be much closer than you think.  TCJ Average- 4.5 points Obama

New Mexico- No new data to work with here.  The latest poll was from October 13th and showed Obama with a 13 point lead.  I think it’s safe to say this is no longer the case.  I think in the end McCain will take this state. TCJ Average- Not enough data.

North Carolina-  1.5 point lead for Obama.  This lead is inflated by a 4 point lead in the latest Zogby poll and Time poll, so it’s probably much closer.  TCJ Average- 0.25 points McCain (virtually tied according to polls.)

Ohio-  This is a weird one, the RCP average is 6 points Obama, but I don’t think he has anywhere near that much of a lead there.  Two of the polls, Politico and Big10Battleground(This poll takes a random sample.  Not accurate at all), show 10 and 12 point leads, respectively.  All other polls have it much closer. TCJ Average- 2 points Obama (This is using polling data, I think McCain is actually ahead here.)

Pennsylvania- Obama now has a 10.8 point lead according to the RCP average.  However I think it’s much closer here, as noted by the internal Obama campaign polls that show a mere 2-point lead.  Also, the governor of the state stated in an interview that he was “worried” that Pennsylvania could go red. TCJ Average- 8 points Obama

Virginia- Obama is now up 7.8 points, but that is due to the fact that all of the most recent polls are the polls that I have deemed inaccurate (and I know everything.)  So without more reliable numbers, I can’t really say what the numbers are.  But I have confidence this will go red in the end.

Alright well that wraps up today’s poll information.  Thanks for reading!

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Today in the Polls

Well, if you look at today’s RCP average, it doesn’t look like today was a good day in for McCain.  Not terrible, but is not down 7.5, compared to 7.0 yesterday.  But a lot of this is polls that date back to the 19th, and polls such as Pew, Zogby, NY Times, etc., that are generally more favorable to the democrats.  So, what I’m now going to is take my average of the national polls daily.  I’d like to thank krissmith777 for the idea.

According to my average of today’s polls, Obama has only a 5 point lead over McCain.  Again all I took out was Pew, Zobgy, NY Times, and NBC.  They were all ridiculously high and shouldn’t really be included in the average anyway.

State Polls

Colorado- Still a 5.4 lead in Obama’s favor.  I think it’s actually about 5 even, due to the fact that one poll from early October is still be averaged in, but either way we need this to get a little tighter.

Florida- A new poll came out today that has Obama ahead 7 points, which I think is not even slightly true.  But Florida is a toughie now.  3 polls have McCain up by 1 or 2 points, while 3 polls have Obama up 4, 5, and 7.  The average of the most recent polls is 2.0 in Obama’s favor.

Missouri- Still at 2.7 points in Obama’s favor.  This is not a big deal, but I do feel like McCain will need this one.  I think ultimately he’ll win it.

Nevada- Still at 3.3 points in Obama’s favor.  However, this one has an old poll figured in, and without that it brings the number to about 2.5 points in Obama’s favor.

New Hampshire- Once again, not much data out of New Hampshire.  Most recent poll has Obama up 7 points, but I McCain is getting aggressive in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire now, so we could very well see this number drop.

New Mexico- Like New Hampshire, not much to work with.  Latest data showing Obama up 8.4 points.

North Carolina- 2 point  lead for Obama.  I see this one ultimately swinging red.

Ohio- According to a new poll out today, Obama is up 12 points.  There is not way that’s true.  With that averaged in, Obama has a 6 point lead.  Without it he is back at a 0.33% lead.

Pennsylvania-  Obama’s lead dropped down to 10.7 points, 0.7 points lower than yesterday.  I’d like to again mention the internal polling numbers that had Obama up by only 2.  I think the race here might not be as distant as some think.

Virginia- The latest Mason-Dixon poll has it down to a 2 point race in Obama’s favor.  I think McCain will ultimately win here too, as I just can’t see Virginia going democrat in this election.

That’s all for today’s polls!  Once again, if anyone wants a state added to the daily update, I will be glad to do it!

Thanks for reading!

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Today in the Polls

McCain is up slightly in the polls today.  The Real Clear Politics has him at average disadvantage of 7 points, compared to 7.2 points yesterday.  The Rasmussen Poll (my favorite) has him down 6 points.  The margin of error on that poll is 2 points.

State Polls

(This will be formatted the same way everyday.  In states that are considered “battlegrounds”, the RealClear Politics average will be posted first.  The other number posted is the Rasmussen poll numbers, as this is my favorite poll.)

Colorado-  Barack is holding steady at a 5.4 lead.  However, this is the smallest lead he has had since October 14th.  McCain is only down 5 according to Rasmussen, with a 4% Margin-of-Error.

Florida- McCain has cut his disadvantage down to 1.5, his lowest disadvantage since September 30th.  Rasmussen has McCain ahead 1 point.

Missouri- McCain is now down 2.7 points, which is not a huge deficit, but this is his lowest point during this election.  However, this is within the Margin-of-Error for all the polls averaged.

Nevada- McCain took a slight dip today, with Obama now leading by 3.3.  However, like Missouri, this is within all of the averaged polls Margin-of-Error.

New Hampshire- The latest poll out of that state has Obama leading by 7 points (I’m not using the RCP average because the polls that it is averaging for this state are outdated.)  Good news, since McCain has been reigniting efforts to take the state come the 4th.

New Mexico- The latest polling data is from the 13th, but it has McCain down by 8.4 points.

North Carolina- Obama leading by 2.  Well within the M.O.E for all polls averaged.  This is a state I expect to McCain to ultimately win.

Ohio- Obama leading by 2.5 points, although Rasmussen has McCain ahead 2 points.  However, one of the poll numbers averaged in is unusually large (9 point lead for Obama), I think this can be discredited, as everything else has this a close race.  Taking that out puts Obama ahead by a slim 0.33%.

Pennsylvania- Obama now ahead by only 11.4, his lowest lead since October 6th.  I haven’t dropped this from McCain’s list yet, I still think he can win it.  I have a weird feeling about it.  Also worth noting, I heard from someone today that internal polls with Obama’s campaign put him ahead only by 2.  I can’t find any details though.

Virginia- The RCP average has several outdated polls averaged in, causing it to be strangely high.  The latest poll (NBC) has Obama ahead by a mere 2 points, within the 4% M.O.E.

And that’s a wrap on today’s poll update!  If there is any state anyone would like me to add to the daily update, just let me know!

**UPDATE** Found the thing about the internal polls showing Obama with only a 2% lead.  This article talks a little more about it.  Like I said, Pennsylvania is not a done deal for Obama.  And that article makes me feel even better about it.

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Video of the Day

This is the kind of stuff that is borderline ridiculous.  This is why I think people should be required to take an “election literacy” test before voting:

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Is Obama’s Lead Narrowing?

According to latest Fox/Rasmussen Poll (I put the most stock in these), McCain is now leading in Florida by 1 point and Ohio by 2 points.  Could he finally be taking the two key states back?  I think that everyone understands that he has got to win those if he plans to win this election, unless of course he wins Pennsylvania, which I haven’t counted out of the race yet.  I figured the race what probably tighten, but I thought it would be a bit closer to election day.  If he keeps this up, I won’t have to be quite as up tight on the days leading up to November 4th.  And while I know Barack is still ahead in Virginia according to just about every poll there is, I just don’t think it’s possible that he’ll win it.  That’s generally a very conservative state and it’s tough for me to stomach that they will be one of the deciding factors on whether or not the 1st and 3rd most liberal people in the senate will be in the White House.  It simply doesn’t add up.

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Colin Powell Endorsing Barack Obama

It’s official.  Colin Powell is endorsing Barack Obama.  While I’m not suprised by this, I just have one question: Why now?  Does he feel that Barack needed the extra boost with most polls now indicating the lead he has is shrinking?  Whatever it may be, I don’t think this will have much influence on the election.  I mean sure people like him, but I just don’t see any conservatives voting Obama because Colin Powell is.  And the independents that still haven’t made up their minds at this point obviously aren’t easily swayed one way or another, so I can’t see this being a deciding factor for anyone.  But what do you think?  Please vote in our poll below on what effect, if any, Colin Powell’s announcement will have on the race.

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