Today in the Polls

McCain is up slightly in the polls today.  The Real Clear Politics has him at average disadvantage of 7 points, compared to 7.2 points yesterday.  The Rasmussen Poll (my favorite) has him down 6 points.  The margin of error on that poll is 2 points.

State Polls

(This will be formatted the same way everyday.  In states that are considered “battlegrounds”, the RealClear Politics average will be posted first.  The other number posted is the Rasmussen poll numbers, as this is my favorite poll.)

Colorado-  Barack is holding steady at a 5.4 lead.  However, this is the smallest lead he has had since October 14th.  McCain is only down 5 according to Rasmussen, with a 4% Margin-of-Error.

Florida- McCain has cut his disadvantage down to 1.5, his lowest disadvantage since September 30th.  Rasmussen has McCain ahead 1 point.

Missouri- McCain is now down 2.7 points, which is not a huge deficit, but this is his lowest point during this election.  However, this is within the Margin-of-Error for all the polls averaged.

Nevada- McCain took a slight dip today, with Obama now leading by 3.3.  However, like Missouri, this is within all of the averaged polls Margin-of-Error.

New Hampshire- The latest poll out of that state has Obama leading by 7 points (I’m not using the RCP average because the polls that it is averaging for this state are outdated.)  Good news, since McCain has been reigniting efforts to take the state come the 4th.

New Mexico- The latest polling data is from the 13th, but it has McCain down by 8.4 points.

North Carolina- Obama leading by 2.  Well within the M.O.E for all polls averaged.  This is a state I expect to McCain to ultimately win.

Ohio- Obama leading by 2.5 points, although Rasmussen has McCain ahead 2 points.  However, one of the poll numbers averaged in is unusually large (9 point lead for Obama), I think this can be discredited, as everything else has this a close race.  Taking that out puts Obama ahead by a slim 0.33%.

Pennsylvania- Obama now ahead by only 11.4, his lowest lead since October 6th.  I haven’t dropped this from McCain’s list yet, I still think he can win it.  I have a weird feeling about it.  Also worth noting, I heard from someone today that internal polls with Obama’s campaign put him ahead only by 2.  I can’t find any details though.

Virginia- The RCP average has several outdated polls averaged in, causing it to be strangely high.  The latest poll (NBC) has Obama ahead by a mere 2 points, within the 4% M.O.E.

And that’s a wrap on today’s poll update!  If there is any state anyone would like me to add to the daily update, just let me know!

**UPDATE** Found the thing about the internal polls showing Obama with only a 2% lead.  This article talks a little more about it.  Like I said, Pennsylvania is not a done deal for Obama.  And that article makes me feel even better about it.



Filed under Barack Obama, Election 2008, John McCain, Politics, Today in the Polls

5 responses to “Today in the Polls

  1. The Person he is being beaten to death by is called Barack Obama.

  2. I appreciate you commenting! Opinions from both sides are always fun.

    If you consider this John McCain being beaten to death, you obviously don’t follow politics very closely. An average lead of 7 points is nothing to get cocky about, trust me. If you look back as recently as September 1st when Barack had a 6 point lead, you’ll see what I mean. He went from a 6 point lead to being down 3 in just 7 days.

  3. I think the gap is slowly closing and this is going to be a nailbiter. Thankfully Obama/Biden have given McCain/Palin some valuable ammunition (redistribution of wealth and imminent crisis under Barry) to help take “the One” down a notch or two. Let’s hope for the sake of our nation they succeed.

  4. krissmith777

    Rick says, “An average lead of 7 points is nothing to get cocky about, trust me.”

    I agree. But that’s just the RCP avarage, and I reject the RCP avarage for practical reasons.

    It includes the Outlier Pew Poll with Obama with a 14 point lead. — Need I say not many polls, if any other, have a similar result?

    Also, it includes polls of “registered voters.” My problem with accepting “registered voter” polls is that many “registered voters” do not vote. — In 2004 45% of them stayed home.

    Also it includes the Zogby poll.– Zogby’s acuracy is nothing to trust in. It predicted Romney would win California — It was wrong. The result was the opposite, almost pergectly to the statistic predicted.

    The avarage of the AP poll, the Battleground poll, and the IDB/TIPP poll show it as much tighte than seven points.

  5. Black Coffee & Bourbon: I completely agree that the Obama/Biden team has done a great job helping McCain out. The Joe Biden “imminent crisis” comment was too funny, I can’t see how he thought that was a smart thing to say at all. But they can keep it coming, we’re loving all the help we can get! And thanks for stopping by to read The Conservative Journal! Hope you stop by again.

    Krissmith777: Yeah, that is my only complaint about the way RCP figures they’re averages. It’s an extremely useful site, but those flaws do cause some speculation. In the state calculations if ridiculous polling numbers were in the average or outdated information was averaged in, I either did not include the average or re-averaged without those numbers. But I’m glad you said that, because I think from now on when I do these daily poll updates I will include The Conservative Journal Average that does not include things like the Pew poll, Zogby, and polls that include Registered Voters. Hopefully this will give a more clear result. And thanks for reading and commenting!

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