McCain is up slightly in the polls today. The Real Clear Politics has him at average disadvantage of 7 points, compared to 7.2 points yesterday. The Rasmussen Poll (my favorite) has him down 6 points. The margin of error on that poll is 2 points.
(This will be formatted the same way everyday. In states that are considered “battlegrounds”, the RealClear Politics average will be posted first. The other number posted is the Rasmussen poll numbers, as this is my favorite poll.)
Colorado- Barack is holding steady at a 5.4 lead. However, this is the smallest lead he has had since October 14th. McCain is only down 5 according to Rasmussen, with a 4% Margin-of-Error.
Florida- McCain has cut his disadvantage down to 1.5, his lowest disadvantage since September 30th. Rasmussen has McCain ahead 1 point.
Missouri- McCain is now down 2.7 points, which is not a huge deficit, but this is his lowest point during this election. However, this is within the Margin-of-Error for all the polls averaged.
Nevada- McCain took a slight dip today, with Obama now leading by 3.3. However, like Missouri, this is within all of the averaged polls Margin-of-Error.
New Hampshire- The latest poll out of that state has Obama leading by 7 points (I’m not using the RCP average because the polls that it is averaging for this state are outdated.) Good news, since McCain has been reigniting efforts to take the state come the 4th.
New Mexico- The latest polling data is from the 13th, but it has McCain down by 8.4 points.
North Carolina- Obama leading by 2. Well within the M.O.E for all polls averaged. This is a state I expect to McCain to ultimately win.
Ohio- Obama leading by 2.5 points, although Rasmussen has McCain ahead 2 points. However, one of the poll numbers averaged in is unusually large (9 point lead for Obama), I think this can be discredited, as everything else has this a close race. Taking that out puts Obama ahead by a slim 0.33%.
Pennsylvania- Obama now ahead by only 11.4, his lowest lead since October 6th. I haven’t dropped this from McCain’s list yet, I still think he can win it. I have a weird feeling about it. Also worth noting, I heard from someone today that internal polls with Obama’s campaign put him ahead only by 2. I can’t find any details though.
Virginia- The RCP average has several outdated polls averaged in, causing it to be strangely high. The latest poll (NBC) has Obama ahead by a mere 2 points, within the 4% M.O.E.
And that’s a wrap on today’s poll update! If there is any state anyone would like me to add to the daily update, just let me know!
**UPDATE** Found the thing about the internal polls showing Obama with only a 2% lead. This article talks a little more about it. Like I said, Pennsylvania is not a done deal for Obama. And that article makes me feel even better about it.