Well, if you look at today’s RCP average, it doesn’t look like today was a good day in for McCain. Not terrible, but is not down 7.5, compared to 7.0 yesterday. But a lot of this is polls that date back to the 19th, and polls such as Pew, Zogby, NY Times, etc., that are generally more favorable to the democrats. So, what I’m now going to is take my average of the national polls daily. I’d like to thank krissmith777 for the idea.
According to my average of today’s polls, Obama has only a 5 point lead over McCain. Again all I took out was Pew, Zobgy, NY Times, and NBC. They were all ridiculously high and shouldn’t really be included in the average anyway.
Colorado- Still a 5.4 lead in Obama’s favor. I think it’s actually about 5 even, due to the fact that one poll from early October is still be averaged in, but either way we need this to get a little tighter.
Florida- A new poll came out today that has Obama ahead 7 points, which I think is not even slightly true. But Florida is a toughie now. 3 polls have McCain up by 1 or 2 points, while 3 polls have Obama up 4, 5, and 7. The average of the most recent polls is 2.0 in Obama’s favor.
Missouri- Still at 2.7 points in Obama’s favor. This is not a big deal, but I do feel like McCain will need this one. I think ultimately he’ll win it.
Nevada- Still at 3.3 points in Obama’s favor. However, this one has an old poll figured in, and without that it brings the number to about 2.5 points in Obama’s favor.
New Hampshire- Once again, not much data out of New Hampshire. Most recent poll has Obama up 7 points, but I McCain is getting aggressive in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire now, so we could very well see this number drop.
New Mexico- Like New Hampshire, not much to work with. Latest data showing Obama up 8.4 points.
North Carolina- 2 point lead for Obama. I see this one ultimately swinging red.
Ohio- According to a new poll out today, Obama is up 12 points. There is not way that’s true. With that averaged in, Obama has a 6 point lead. Without it he is back at a 0.33% lead.
Pennsylvania- Obama’s lead dropped down to 10.7 points, 0.7 points lower than yesterday. I’d like to again mention the internal polling numbers that had Obama up by only 2. I think the race here might not be as distant as some think.
Virginia- The latest Mason-Dixon poll has it down to a 2 point race in Obama’s favor. I think McCain will ultimately win here too, as I just can’t see Virginia going democrat in this election.
That’s all for today’s polls! Once again, if anyone wants a state added to the daily update, I will be glad to do it!
Thanks for reading!