Sorry I didn’t update over the weekend, I was out of town. Here are today’s polling numbers:
Today the RCP average shows that Obama is up by 7.3 points. However, taking only the most recent data (polls released yesterday and today, it shows Obama is only up about 6 points. And then from there if you take out polls that are clearly biased or inaccurate, it shows Obama is only up about 4.5 points, this number is our average, and will from now on be known as the TCJ Average.
Colorado- The RCP average is 6.4 Obama (A Colorado newspaper poll has Obama up 12 in the state, causing the average to be larger), but the Rasmussen numbers show it’s closer with a 5-point Obama lead. Something worth noting is that the Time Magazine poll (usually trends far to the left) has this race as close as 4 points. TCJ Average- 4.5 points Obama.
Florida- RCP average has Obama up 1.9, this lead is most likely because the St. Petersburg Times poll has it 7 points in Obama’s favor. Something to note is that the latest Zogby poll (which as we’ve said trends left) has this race tied in Flordia. TCJ Average-1 point McCain
Missouri- Obama’s lead in the state has shrunk to 1 point, the latest poll shows it’s tied (SurveyUSA) and NBC/Mason Dixon and Suffolk show McCain with a 1 point lead. TCJ Average- 1 point McCain (I think has a much larger lead, but this is just working with the polling data I have.)
Nevada- Now a 3.5 lead for Obama. TCJ Average- 3 point Obama
New Hampshire- RCP average shows a 7.7 lead for Obama. However the two most recent polls show a 4 and 5 point lead for Obama. The MOE on both was 4 points, so this state could be much closer than you think. TCJ Average- 4.5 points Obama
New Mexico- No new data to work with here. The latest poll was from October 13th and showed Obama with a 13 point lead. I think it’s safe to say this is no longer the case. I think in the end McCain will take this state. TCJ Average- Not enough data.
North Carolina- 1.5 point lead for Obama. This lead is inflated by a 4 point lead in the latest Zogby poll and Time poll, so it’s probably much closer. TCJ Average- 0.25 points McCain (virtually tied according to polls.)
Ohio- This is a weird one, the RCP average is 6 points Obama, but I don’t think he has anywhere near that much of a lead there. Two of the polls, Politico and Big10Battleground(This poll takes a random sample. Not accurate at all), show 10 and 12 point leads, respectively. All other polls have it much closer. TCJ Average- 2 points Obama (This is using polling data, I think McCain is actually ahead here.)
Pennsylvania- Obama now has a 10.8 point lead according to the RCP average. However I think it’s much closer here, as noted by the internal Obama campaign polls that show a mere 2-point lead. Also, the governor of the state stated in an interview that he was “worried” that Pennsylvania could go red. TCJ Average- 8 points Obama
Virginia- Obama is now up 7.8 points, but that is due to the fact that all of the most recent polls are the polls that I have deemed inaccurate (and I know everything.) So without more reliable numbers, I can’t really say what the numbers are. But I have confidence this will go red in the end.
Alright well that wraps up today’s poll information. Thanks for reading!